Modelling data reveals cost effectiveness of HPV vaccine

New modelling research presented at the Health Protection Agency's annual conference will show that up to 70% of cases of cervical cancer and 95% of cases of genital warts in men and women could be prevented by the introduction of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination into the UK 's national immunisation programme. This is in addition to the cancer cases already prevented by the NHS cervical screening programme.

HPA researchers have been examining how long vaccine protection may last. They have considered the cost of the vaccine, the cost to the health service of treating people with conditions caused by HPV and the effect that cervical cancer and genital warts had on quality of life. The research which will be presented today suggests that the HPV vaccination is likely to be an effective use of health care resources if the vaccine protected girls against the virus for at least 20 years.

There is considerable uncertainty in many key factors used in this modelling work, and the team notes that careful monitoring of the effectiveness of HPV vaccination will need to be in place to assess the true impact of a programme in the UK.

The work will be used to inform recommendations to the Department of Health about national immunisation policy, subject to its being approved by a panel of public health experts.

Mark Jit, who led the research for the Health Protection Agency, said “Our models suggest that vaccination could play a beneficial role in preventing cervical cancer and genital warts in the UK . The benefits to health would be worth the cost of vaccination if our model assumptions are correct. However, there are still uncertainties in the model. If a decision is made to proceed with HPV vaccination, then follow-up of vaccinated women for several decades will be important to verify predictions about the long term impact of vaccination.”

Because there is about a 10-20 year gap between HPV infection and the development of cervical cancer, it will take some years before the introduction of HPV vaccination has a major effect on the number of cases of cervical cancer.

Professor Pat Troop , Chief Executive of the Agency said, “This study supports the hope that HPV vaccination can improve health in the UK in coming years. It is exciting to see the potential that HPV vaccination has to add to the success of the excellent NHS Cervical Screening Programme in preventing cervical cancer in the UK .”

“Cervical screening will remain important and the best way for older women (who are unvaccinated) to reduce their risk of cervical cancer. Also, current vaccines do not protect against all HPV types that cause cervical cancer, and screening will remain the best way to protect against disease caused by these other types.”