A new test could predict when to expect menopause

May 8 2008

At a time when many women are holding back on starting a family until they feel both and emotionally financially secure, the question of just how fertile women are as they get older is of interest to many.

While tests already exist which gauge a woman's fertility, as they only measure how fertile a woman is at the time of the test, they reliability could be questioned.

Now an Australian scientist working in collaboration with scientists in the Netherlands has developed mathematical model which predicts when an individual woman will reach menopause.

Queensland statistician Professor Malcolm Faddy's model uses the levels of Serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) in a woman's blood to give a much more precise answer.

Research has found that AMH is a reliable marker in reflecting the gradual decline of fertility because of its link with menstruation.

The test could mean that couples delaying having a family for some reason, will have an idea whether her fertility, which is dictated by how many eggs a woman produces, has already started to decline.

Professor Faddy, a Queensland University of Technology (QUT) mathematician applied himself to this numbers game and developed a model which, on the basis of a woman's current age and the results of the AMH test, predicts when a woman can expect to reach menopause.

Professor Faddy says currently in the absence of other information, the median age for menopause is 51 years but he hopes his model will eventually be able to predict menopause to within a couple of years - he says however that a totally reliable test remains a long way off.

While some fertility experts say there will be great interest in a test able to give a woman a more accurate prediction of when her fertility declines others have their doubts and say it could produce false hope or unnecessary concern.

The test is currently undergoing a trial in 144 fertile volunteers in Holland who will now be followed up in 10, 20 and 30 years' time.

The researchers say the results so far suggest that AMH reflects a woman's age more realistically than her chronological age alone.