By 2024 one in seven women will be diagnosed with breast cancer

Jun 2 2008

Experts in Britain are predicting that by 2024 one in seven women will be diagnosed with breast cancer if there is not an improvement in public health trends.

They recommend that women start families earlier and avoid the long term use of female hormones in hormone replacement (HRT) and contraceptives, they also say regular exercise and a healthy diet could also make a difference.

There has been a rise in breast cancer in the general population and researchers have found the risk to women carrying a gene which can lead to the disease has increased considerably in the last 60 years.

Around 1 in 500 people carry the gene mutations which results in an 85-90% chance of developing breast cancer.

The researchers from the Genesis Breast Cancer Prevention Centre in Manchester, suggests a lifestyle change is the key.

The researchers carried out a study of more than 1,400 women with the high-risk genes, and they believe the rise in the incidence of breast cancer is reflected in the general population.

Professor Gareth Evans, who led the study says in 1984 only 1 in 13 women were projected to develop breast cancer but by 2004 this had risen to 1 in 10.

Professor Evans says if the rates continue to rise, by 2024 one in 7 to 8 women will develop breast cancer by 80 years of age which will translate into an extra 4,000 deaths, unless further improvements in treatments occur.

Professor Evans is a specialist in genetics at St Mary's Hospital and Christie Hospital, both in Manchester, and his research found that women born before 1920 who carry faults in the high-risk genes had a 7.5% chance of developing breast cancer by the age of 40 - however, women born after 1960 had a risk of up to 40%.

In Australia the New South Wales Cancer Council has called on the Federal Government to review its policies on HRT.

The Cancer Council says a new study has linked a drop in the incidence of breast cancer to a decline in the use of HRT and says a review is in order.

The research by Dr. Karen Canfell found that between 2001 and 2003, there was a 40 per cent drop in HRT prescribing in Australia, and at the same time there was seven per cent drop in breast cancer rates in women over 50 years of age.

Dr. Canfell says the study supports other international studies and shows that women can reduce their risk of breast cancer just by using HRT for a minimum period.

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) recommends hormone replacement therapy be used in the short-term for the management of the symptoms of menopause.

Many experts believe current recommendations regarding HRT still apply and say the study simply confirms what was already known.

They say the decision to stop HRT should be up to the individual, even for women who have been using HRT for longer than the recommended time.

Professor Evans's research is published in the BMC Cancer journal.