Australian researchers have new model to predict long-term survival of critically ill patients

Researchers in Western Australia have come up with a new way of estimating the long-term survival of critically ill patients.

The new model which has been developed by Clinical Associate Professor Ho and his co-investigators at the Royal Perth Hospital and the University of Western Australia, used clinical and long term survival data of a heterogenous group of 11,930 patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit at Royal Perth Hospital in Western Australia.

This particular Intensive Care Unit admits patients of all specialties and captures over 40% of all critically ill patients in Western Australia.

The model uses seven commonly collected clinical variables, within the first 5 days of a critical illness, to estimate the long term survival rate of critically unwell patients that pass through the Intensive Care Unit.

The PREDICT model - Predicted Risk, Existing Diseases, and Intensive Care Therapy, uses criteria such as age, gender, other diseases and conditions (co-morbidity), severity of illness and intensity of intensive care therapy, in order to predict a patient's likely long term survival up to 15 years after the onset of a critical illness.

The model suggests that age (50%) and other diseases and conditions (27%) of a seriously ill patient have a much more profound effect on a patient's long term survival rate, than the severity of the acute illness (20%) itself.

The model extends the existing knowledge about the prognosis of critically ill patients beyond five years and could provide a useful framework for clinicians, patients, and researchers when the long term prognosis of a critically ill patient is considered.

The study is published in Public Library of Science.