IMS Health (NYSE: RX) reported today that the value of the global pharmaceutical market in 2010 is expected to grow 4 - 6 percent on a constant-dollar basis, exceeding $825 billion, driven by stronger near-term growth in the U.S. market. The forecast, the leading annual industry indicator of market dynamics, predicts global pharmaceutical market sales to grow at a 4 - 7 percent compound annual growth rate through 2013, and takes into account the impact of the global macroeconomy, the changing mix of innovative and mature products, and the rising influence of healthcare access and funding on market demand. Global pharmaceutical market value is expected to expand to $975+ billion by 2013.
In its latest forecast, the company raised its expectations for five-year pharmaceutical market growth by one percentage point, partly due to the stronger demand being experienced in 2009. The conclusions are drawn from the latest release of IMS Market PrognosisTM, the company’s series of strategic market forecasting publications.
“Overall, market growth is expected to remain at historically low levels, but stronger-than-expected demand in the U.S. is lifting both our short- and longer-term forecasts,” said Murray Aitken, senior vice president, Healthcare Insight, IMS. “The economic climate will continue to be a dampening influence in most mature markets, particularly in those countries with rising budget deficits and publicly funded healthcare systems. In the U.S., pricing flexibility and inventory management actions are contributing to much higher growth than anticipated earlier this year, and are the main reasons for the upward adjustment to our five-year forecast.”
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