Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the gastric cancer drug market -- driven by the launch of several targeted agents over the next few years -- will more than double from approximately $700 million in 2008 to nearly $1.5 billion in 2018 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The new Pharmacor report entitled Gastric Cancer finds that, in the first-line setting, market growth will be driven by the launches of Roche/Chugai's Herceptin and Avastin, GlaxoSmithKline's Tykerb/Tyverb and Bristol-Myers Squibb/Eli Lilly/Merck KGaA's Erbitux. In the second-line setting, market growth will be driven by the launches of Eli Lilly's IMC-1121B and Novartis's Afinitor. The report forecasts that these six targeted agents, which will launch between 2010 and 2014, will account for more than half of the overall gastric cancer market in 2018.
"In particular, Roche/Chugai products will dominate the gastric cancer market in 2018," said Decision Resources Analyst Rachel Webster, D.Phil. "Herceptin, Avastin and Xeloda will capture one-third of overall market sales in 2018, despite the entry of generic biosimilar versions of Herceptin and Xeloda, beginning in 2012 and 2013, respectively."
The report also finds that, although the second-line patient population has the smallest market share, it will experience the greatest growth, more than doubling from $120 million in 2008 to over $320 million in 2018. The launches in the second-line setting of Afinitor and IMC-1121B will dramatically improve treatment options in this patient segment.
Despite strong growth in sales of gastric cancer therapies over the next decade, emerging therapies will add only incremental benefit in the overall survival of patients. As a result, significant unmet need remains in all population segments for therapies that are more efficacious than current and emerging agents. In particular, substantial market potential exists in Japan due to the high incidence of the indication and detection of early gastric cancer through national screening.
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