Internet searches predict ADHD medication prescriptions during COVID-19

In a groundbreaking study published in Brain Medicine (Genomic Press), UCI researchers have uncovered a striking correlation between internet searches for ADHD medications and actual prescription rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding opens up new possibilities for using online search data to predict and prevent prescription drug shortages.

The study, led by Dr. Steven Grieco from the University of California, Irvine, analyzed Google Trends data spanning 20 years, with a particular focus on the period following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020. The researchers found a significant surge in searches for ADHD medications during this time, mirroring the known increase in ADHD drug prescriptions reported in other studies.

Our findings suggest that Google Trends data could serve as a real-time proxy for prescription drug usage, especially during rapidly changing public health situations. This approach could be invaluable when actual prescription data is not immediately available."

Dr. Steven Grieco, University of California, Irvine

The research team employed sophisticated analytical techniques, including cross-correlation analysis and k-medoids clustering, to identify trends and subtrends in the search data. They also performed seasonal trend analysis for 187 disorders and 113 medication keywords, providing a comprehensive view of public interest in various health conditions and treatments.

One of the most intriguing aspects of the study was the strong correlation (r = 0.876) between Google Trends searches for ADHD medications and actual prescription rates from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) database. This correlation held true up until the onset of the pandemic, after which MEPS data was no longer available.

The study raises several important questions for future exploration:

1. How might this approach be scaled up and refined to cover a wider range of health topics?

2. Could real-time predictions of prescription drug usage help prevent shortages like the Adderall shortage announced by the FDA in October 2022?

3. What are the long-term implications of increased public interest in and usage of ADHD medications post-pandemic?

4. How can public health departments, drug manufacturers, and data industry partners collaborate effectively to make real-time predictions about public prescription usage?

While the study provides valuable insights, the researchers acknowledge several limitations. The data may not be representative of the general population, potentially excluding individuals with limited online literacy or internet access. Additionally, the correlation between internet searches and actual prescription use may not hold for all health issues or in different contexts.

Despite these limitations, the study's findings have significant implications for public health and pharmaceutical industries. By leveraging Google Trends data, health officials and drug manufacturers could potentially detect early signs of changing drug demands and respond more quickly to prevent shortages.

As we move forward from the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, which ended in May 2023, this research provides a novel approach to monitoring and predicting public health trends. It underscores the potential of big data analytics in healthcare and opens up new avenues for proactive health management strategies.