Young Australians face stagnating life expectancy trends

Australian National UniversityOct 7 2024

Australians under 50 are experiencing stagnating life expectancy while older cohorts, especially men, are living longer, according to new research from The Australian National University (ANU).

The study examined longevity trends and patterns in six English-speaking countries (Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) and compared them with other high-income countries.

The results show striking similarities between English-speaking countries in terms of adverse health outcomes for young and middle-aged adults under fifty.

Lead author and ANU demographer, Dr. Sergey Timonin, said the study reveals that Australia is performing worse in life expectancy for younger cohorts when compared to non-Anglophone high-income countries but is ahead of the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada.

For the under fifties in Australia, we found that life expectancy is behind the majority of high-income countries, which was quite surprising. We already knew that the US and UK suffer from this problem, but we didn't expect to see Australia (as well as Canada and New Zealand) in this group.

However, compared to English-speaking countries, Australians still enjoy a higher life expectancy, including at younger ages. It also has one of the world's highest life expectancies at older ages."

Dr. Sergey Timonin, lead author and ANU demographer

The research challenges the findings of a previous study in The Economist that found Australians 'are healthier than their peers'. 

Stagnating life expectancy trends were reported in some high-income countries before the COVID-19 pandemic, but according to the researchers, there's been a lack of comparative studies that provide a broader and more detailed perspective on the phenomenon.

"In the pre-pandemic period in 2010-19, the increase in life expectancy slowed in all Anglophone countries, except Ireland, mainly due to stagnating or rising mortality at young adults and middle-aged adults under fifty," Dr Timonin said.

"Each of the English-speaking countries has experienced a marked mortality disadvantage for cohorts born since the early 1970s relative to the average of the other high-income countries."

The study found that life expectancy in younger cohorts in Australia was negatively impacted by suicide, drug and alcohol-related behaviors, and traffic accidents.

"External causes of death and substance use disorders were found to be the largest contributors to the observed disadvantage at these ages," Dr Timonin said.

"Recreational drug use and risky behaviors are mostly related to mentally driven disorders."

The researchers believe that although future gains in life expectancy in wealthy societies like Australia will increasingly depend on reducing mortality at older ages, adverse health trends among younger people are a cause for concern.

"This emerging and avoidable threat to health equity in English-speaking countries should be the focus of further research and policy action," Dr. Timonin said.

"There is scope for English-speaking countries to improve the health of their younger populations and to halt the widening gap in mortality compared with other high-income countries."

The research is published in the International Journal of Epidemiology.