Study predicts major rise in deaths due to extreme temperatures and air pollution

Max Planck Institute for ChemistryNov 21 2024

New study projects a sharp rise in temperature- and pollution-related mortality, with the impact of temperature surpassing that of pollution for a fifth of the global population.

Mortality attributable to air pollution and extreme temperatures is a major concern,  and it is expected to heighten in the future. In a new study led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, an international research team found that, under the most probable projection, annual mortality rates linked to air pollution and extreme temperatures could reach 30 million by the end of the century. The research, based on advanced numerical simulations, suggests a concerning trend:  pollution-related deaths are expected to increase five-fold, while temperature-related mortality could rise seven-fold, posing a more critical health risk than air pollution for at least 20% of the world's population.

The researchers base their calculations on projections from 2000 to 2090, analyzed in ten-year intervals. "In 2000, around 1.6 million people died each year due to extreme temperatures, both cold and heat. By the end of the century, in the most probable scenario, this figure climbs to 10.8 million, roughly a seven-fold increase. For air pollution, annual deaths in 2000 were about 4.1 million. By the century's close, this number rises to 19.5 million, a five-fold increase," explains Dr. Andrea Pozzer, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and adjunct associate professor at The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus.

The study shows significant regional differences in future mortality rates. South and East Asia are expected to face the strongest increases, driven by aging of the population, with air pollution still playing a major role. In contrast, in high-income regions-;such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia, and Asia Pacific-;deaths related to extreme temperatures are expected to surpass those caused by air pollution. In some countries within these regions, such as the United States, England, France, Japan and New Zealand, this shift is already occurring. The disparity is likely to grow, with extreme temperatures becoming a more significant health risk than air pollution also in countries of Central and Eastern Europe (e.g., Poland and Romania) and parts of South America (e.g., Argentina and Chile).

By the end of the century, temperature-related health risks are expected to outweigh those linked to air pollution for a fifth of the world's population, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive actions to mitigate this growing public health risk.

"Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a direct threat to public health," says Andrea Pozzer. "These findings highlight the critical importance of implementing decisive mitigation measures now to prevent future loss of life", adds Jean Sciare, director of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) of The Cyprus Institute, key contributor to the study.