Common sense prevails as Brits say one dead swan is not a pandemic

Apr 10 2006

According to a government health adviser, a bird flu pandemic among humans could kill 100,000 children in Britain.

He has reportedly recommended that schools draw up plans to close in the event of an outbreak, and has predicted that if the virus was particularly severe, deaths among school-age children "could be as high as 100,000".

Government health adviser Liam Donaldson has apparently said a potential 50,000 deaths might be prevented by school closures and recommends that schools should be planning on the basis that they may have to close for part or all of a pandemic.

Donaldson has apparently estimated that the overall death toll in Britain in a severe outbreak of the disease could be as high as 700,000.

Britain first reported case of the lethal H5N1 strain was found in a swan found dead in Cellardyke harbour in eastern Scotland last week.

While at present the disease mainly affects animals, scientists dread the disease will mutate into a form that could pass between humans, causing a pandemic.

Although government advisers say the chances of that happening are very slim, they are preparing for that possibility.

According to the World Health Organisation, the virus has to date killed 109 people since 2003, almost all of them in Asia and all involving people who had close contact with infected birds.

Scientists believe the swan probably came from the Bay of Montrose about 30 miles north of where it was found dead, and though tests are being carried out on other birds found near Cellardyke harbour, so far all have proved negative.

Sir David King the governments chief scientific adviser has said there is a "very low" chance of the virus mutating to a form that spreads between humans.

The H5N1 virus cannot pass easily from one person to another and therefore currently does not pose a large-scale threat to humans.

Sir David King has said suggestions of an inevitable global human pandemic were "totally misleading" and says the virus has been in the bird population since 1996, and in Asia in particular there has been a lot of contact between human beings and the birds that have the virus.

King says despite that, a human virus has not developed.

The infected swan found in Fife apparently had a "very similar" strain to one which infected more than 100 birds in Germany.

A six-mile surveillance zone and 1.8 mile protection zone in place around Cellardyke will remain for at least 30 days from the day the swan was found.

A wild bird risk area of 965 square miles has also been established which includes 175 registered poultry premises, containing 3.1 million birds, 260,000 of which are free-range.

Bird flu viruses have 16 H subtypes and nine N subtypes and four types of the virus are known to affect humans though most cause only minor symptoms.

The World Health Organisation says not all H5 or H7 strains are severe, but their ability to mutate means their presence is "always a cause for concern".

As a health spokesman has said the disease remains one of birds, not humans and many experts agree and believe the focus of attention in future would be more likely to be southeast Asia, rather than Fife.