Swine flu - a threatening pandemic or media panic?

Jun 3 2009

The latest update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) # 42, reports that as of the 1st June 2009, 62 countries have officially reported 17,410 cases of influenza A H1N1 infection (swine flu), including 115 deaths.

While the numbers may at first appear alarming it is now being repeatedly questioned whether swine flu will in fact kill millions of people and whether the world really is on the brink of a pandemic - seasonal flu kills many thousands of people each year.

Some experts say the swine flu threat is a result of media hype and panic and that influenza A H1N1 should be treated in the same manner as seasonal flu but according to other experts acknowledging uncertainty and preparing for the worst case scenario is a legitimate and sensible scientific position.

According to David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University in the UK , it can be disastrous to believe that everything has been thought of and he says some risks cannot be measured and constantly change as more information is gleaned.

Professor Spiegelhalter says the information which is not as yet available includes knowing how infectious the swine flu virus might become, the proportion of cases that might die and whether the virus could mutate.

The outbreak of swine flu which began in Mexico has raised concerns worldwide that the disease could be emerging as a global pandemic and it 's spread prompted the WHO on April 29th to raise its alert level to the second-highest level (5) in response to the fast-spreading virus, indicating that a "pandemic is imminent."

The WHO says the virus is now widespread in the United States with 10,053 cases and continues to spread globally but has advised against attempts to contain it because it has already spread too widely.

As the virus has continued to spread without causing deaths or even large numbers of hospitalization, many experts have been questioning whether the new strain of flu is deadlier than normal seasonal flu and in almost half of the cases in the U.S. the source of exposure is unknown.

Australia's health department has confirmed 401 new flu cases, including 306 in the southwestern state of Victoria and the number is doubling every 2 days, with evidence of community spread - this say health officials might prompt the WHO to raise the pandemic alert level to 6.

Health officials in Britain have confirmed there were another 17 cases of the virus across the UK, bringing the total to 246. The new cases included one in Wales, which is believed to be the first swine flu case in the country, and two cases in Scotland.

Eton College one of Britain's top public boys' schools, once attended by Princes William and Harry is also under investigation and has been closed until 7 June along with a number of other schools around the country.

The Department of Health says the cases of swine flu in the UK had so far been mild, and there was not yet evidence of "widespread community transmission" but strategies adopted to slow the spread of the disease appear to have been effective.