Pfizer/Medivation's AD drug Dimebon may garner peak year sales of $1.5 billion

Jan 12 2010

Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, if Pfizer/Medivation's Dimebon shows efficacy in two ongoing clinical trials in moderate to severe Alzheimer's disease that is equivalent to the impressive clinical trial data it has already shown to date in mild to moderate patients, these positive data would promote the use of Dimebon throughout the course of the disease. As a result, following its expected launch in 2012, Dimebon will garner peak year sales of $1.5 billion in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.

The Phase III CONTACT clinical trial for patients with moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease will investigate the effect of Dimebon on neuropsychiatric symptoms and activities of daily living in patients who are already receiving a stable dose of donepezil (Eisai/Pfizer's Aricept, Bracco's Memac). The Phase III CONSTELLATION clinical trial will investigate slightly different end points: the effect of Dimebon on cognition, memory and activities of daily living in patients already receiving a stable dose of memantine (Merz/Grupo Grunenthal's Axura/Akatinol, Lundbeck's Ebixa, Forest Laboratories' Namenda).

The Pharmacor finding from the topic entitled Alzheimer's Disease also reveals that, through 2018, robust 11 percent annual growth in the Alzheimer's disease drug market will be driven by the launch and uptake of new anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies, most notably Johnson & Johnson/Pfizer's bapineuzumab and Eli Lilly's solanezumab.

"Although monoclonal antibodies are expected to offer superior efficacy over other drugs in the market, their uptake will be initially slow following their launches, owing to potential safety concerns," said Decision Resources Analyst Matthew Winton, Ph.D. "Nevertheless, bapineuzumab and solanezumab will achieve combined sales of nearly $6 billion in 2018."