Small increases in temperature, rainfall amount can predict cholera outbreaks, study says

Jun 2 2011

Small increases in temperature and rainfall amount may be able to predict cholera outbreaks in some areas, according to a study published in the June issue of the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Agence France-Presse reports (5/31).

"After analysing several years of disease and weather data from cholera-endemic areas of Zanzibar, Tanzania, scientists from the International Vaccine Institute (IVI) in Seoul, Korea, found that if a more than one degree Celsius increase in the average monthly minimum temperature and a 200mm increase in monthly rainfall were recorded in a month, a cholera outbreak was imminent in the following month," IRIN writes (5/31). Mohammad Ali, a senior scientist at IVI, said governments may be able to use these environmental indicators "as a predictive tool and an early warning system" to implement early interventions such as vaccinations, according to Reuters (Tan, 5/31).