Persistent social and cognitive difficulties linked to poor GCSE results

The combination of poorly developed social and cognitive skills during childhood is linked to poor exam results by the age of 16, with those for whom these issues persist throughout their childhood more than 4 times as likely not to pass at least 5 GCSEs, finds research published online in the Archives of Disease in Childhood.

The findings, which are based on a large set of nationally representative data, suggest that childhood cognitive and behavioural issues may be behind 17% of GCSE (General Certificate of Secondary Education) exam fails among 16 year olds, conclude the researchers.

"Years in school matter, not just for exam results, but for skills and capacity development. It is this development which informs employment, economic wellbeing, social support and health behaviours, all of which ultimately affect health," they point out. 

"Additionally, exam results at age 16 improve financial, occupational, and social-emotional outcomes in early adulthood, independent of later educational attainment, further supporting the importance of skills development in school," they explain.

While the development of cognitive skills, such as thinking, learning, memory, and reasoning, and socioemotional behaviours, such as social skills and self control, during childhood have independently been associated with educational outcomes, the potential impact of their co-development isn't clear. 

To explore this further, the researchers analysed long term data from 9084 children participating in the large nationally representative UK Millennium Cohort Study. 

Childhood cognitive and behavioural problems were categorised into 4 previously identified patterns: no problems (76.5%); late emergence of socioemotional problems, from the age of 7 (10%); early emergence of cognitive and socioemotional problems between the ages of 3 and 7 (just over 8.5%); and persistent cognitive and socioemotional problems, from the ages of 3 to 14 (5%).

Cognitive development was measured using standard cognition tests and socioemotional behaviour was described by parents in questionnaires when their children were aged 3, 5, 7, 11 and 14. 

The researchers then looked at which of these children achieved a standard pass (grade 4) in 5 or more GCSE subjects at the age of 16, adjusting for potentially influential factors, such as the child's gender, mother's ethnicity and educational attainment, and household income.

The odds of achieving a standard pass in at least 5 GCSEs were higher in girls than in boys, and rose in tandem with the mother's educational attainment and household income level. But childhood behaviours were strongly linked to exam results.

Compared with the 'no problem' group, the odds of not achieving a standard GCSE pass was 2.5 times higher for the 'late socioemotional problems' group and 4 times higher for the 'early cognitive and socioemotional problems' group. 

And those with persistent cognitive and socioemotional problems throughout their childhood were nearly 4.5 times more likely not to achieve a standard pass in at least 5 GCSE subjects.

Extrapolating these findings to the population as a whole, the researchers estimated that around 17% of poor exam results in adolescence might be attributable to cognitive and socioemotional behavioural problems in childhood.

This is an observational study, and as such, no firm conclusions can be drawn about causality. And further research is needed to better understand the associations found, emphasise the researchers. 

But the findings prompt them to suggest that: "Rather than focus on getting the highest ability children out of poverty through harnessing that ability to reach the highest levels of educational attainment, such as university degrees, our results support reducing adverse development in all children regardless of level of ability." 

They add: "Another policy implication is the need to move away from siloed child health and education policy to cross sector policy development, recognising the interdependent and interconnected nature of these two major determinants of children's futures." 

The inequalities in educational outcomes for children in England are "stark and increasing" they point out, highlighting that the difference in average English and Maths GCSE passes among 16 year olds, between children who are eligible for free school meals and those who aren't, is the highest it's been in over a decade.