A sharp rise in breast cancer is predicted by 2050—will healthcare systems be ready? A groundbreaking study reveals the alarming disparities in diagnosis, treatment, and survival rates across the world.
Study: Global patterns and trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality across 185 countries. Image Credit: Jo Panuwat D / Shutterstock
Breast cancer is diagnosed globally in four females every minute, and one female dies from it every minute, according to 2022 estimates. In a recent study published in the journal Nature Medicine, an international team of oncologists and health researchers provided a comprehensive look at the current and future burden of breast cancer worldwide, highlighting disparities in incidence and mortality rates and underscoring the urgent need for improved prevention, early detection, and treatment strategies.
Breast Cancer
Breast cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women and a leading cause of global mortality. While high-income countries have seen improvements in survival due to early detection and better treatment, lower-income regions continue to struggle with delayed diagnoses and limited access to healthcare.
The incidence of breast cancer is influenced by factors such as reproductive history, lifestyle choices, and genetics, with developed countries reporting higher rates due to longer life expectancy and lifestyle changes. However, low- and middle-income countries face disproportionately high mortality rates due to late-stage diagnoses, inadequate screening programs, and a shortage of trained medical professionals.
Furthermore, while efforts such as the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Breast Cancer Initiative (GBCI) aim to reduce mortality through early detection and effective treatment, only seven countries, including Belgium and Denmark, have achieved the initiative’s goal of reducing breast cancer mortality by 2.5% per year.
Many other nations are making progress but remain short of this benchmark. This study examined current trends and projected future burdens associated with breast cancer, highlighting the need for global action to close the gap in breast cancer outcomes.
The Current Study
n the present study, the researchers analyzed breast cancer incidence and mortality across 185 countries using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer’s (IARC) Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN). They examined the trends using historical data between 2008 and 2017, considering variables such as human development index (HDI), age distribution, and regional disparities.
To estimate the current (2022) and future (2050) burden, the study applied age-specific incidence and mortality rates from 2022 to the projected population growth. The researchers also evaluated the progress of the 185 countries toward the WHO’s goal of reducing the mortality associated with breast cancer by 2.5% annually.
The study used statistical methods to assess incidence and mortality trends, including locally weighted regression models and estimated annual percentage changes. The team also calculated the mortality-to-incidence ratios as a proxy for healthcare accessibility, disease severity, and systemic barriers to treatment.
Furthermore, risk factors, such as obesity (linked to 8–28% of breast cancer cases), alcohol consumption (4–16%), and hormonal influences, were explored to emphasize the importance of prevention. The study also aimed to provide crucial insights into how socioeconomic factors influence breast cancer outcomes and use this information to guide global cancer control policies.
Global Trends in Breast Cancer
The researchers observed that breast cancer remains the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases and around 670,000 mortalities reported in 2022. While high-income countries have experienced declining mortality rates due to improved detection and treatment, many low- and middle-income countries continue to struggle with high mortality rates, reflecting disparities in healthcare access.
Furthermore, future projections indicated a concerning rise, with an estimated 3.2 million new cases and over 1.1 million deaths expected by 2050. The study also identified that mortality rates are decreasing in 29 very high-HDI countries but increasing in seven nations, including several in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Australia, along with the UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands, is among the countries close to meeting WHO’s 2.5% annual mortality reduction goal, with a current decline of 2.1% per year.
However, the highest breast cancer incidence rates were observed in Australia and New Zealand, where age-standardized rates reached 100.3 cases per 100,000 women. This reflects both longer life expectancy and widespread screening programs, which detect more cases at early stages. By contrast, South-Central Asia had the lowest incidence rates, at 26.7 per 100,000.
Rising incidence rates among younger women below the age of 50 years were also noted, particularly in high-income nations, suggesting shifts in risk factors such as lifestyle changes and reproductive behaviors. Notably, breast cancer incidence in younger women is increasing exclusively in nine countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Bahrain.
Additionally, the study found that low-HDI countries face a disproportionately higher mortality-to-incidence ratio, meaning that more women diagnosed with breast cancer in these regions die from the disease compared to their counterparts in higher-income countries. This disparity was largely attributed to late-stage diagnoses, financial barriers to treatment, and a shortage of cancer specialists and radiotherapy facilities.
Furthermore, the researchers noted that economic and demographic transitions are expected to play a role in the future burden of breast cancer. Rapid urbanization, aging populations, and shifting lifestyle factors could contribute to the increasing incidence, particularly in developing regions. Addressing these challenges requires global efforts to improve healthcare infrastructure, expand access to clinical breast examinations as a cost-effective alternative to mammography in low-resource settings, promote risk-reducing behaviors, and improve access to timely and effective treatment.
The study's limitations included potential inaccuracies in data collection, particularly in low- and middle-income countries with incomplete cancer registries. Additionally, the projections were based on current trends and might underestimate the future burden if risk factors continue to rise.
Conclusions
Overall, the findings highlighted the growing global burden of breast cancer and the stark inequalities in survival between high- and low-income nations. The study indicated that without urgent intervention, mortality rates will continue to rise, especially in resource-limited settings. Strengthening early detection of breast cancer, increasing access to treatment, and addressing preventable risk factors are crucial steps in reducing this growing crisis. The researchers emphasized that if all countries were to meet WHO’s 2.5% annual mortality reduction goal, nearly 560,000 lives could be saved by 2050.