Scientists have developed a score that enables middle-aged individuals to predict their risk of dying in the next five years.
Shutterstock.com / Fer Gregory
People aged between 40 and 70 years can now answer a set of simple questions to calculate their personalised 5-year mortality risk and what is referred to as an “Ubble age” – the age where the average mortality risk in the population is most similar to the estimated risk.
As reported in The Lancet, the score uses measures that can be obtained without the need for any physical examination. By simply accessing the online questionnaire at the website http://www.ubble.co.uk and answering questions about walking speed, previous illness, marital status and finances, people can gauge their overall health and find out how likely it is that they will make it to 2020. The score could also be used by doctors to identify individuals at high risk of mortality.
To create the score, Erik Ingelsson (Uppsala University, Sweden) and Andrea Ganna (Karolinska Insitutet, Sweden) assessed data collected between 2006 and 2010 from almost half a million British adults aged between 40 and 70 years. Using a statistical survival model, they then calculated which demographic, lifestyle and health measurements were the best indicators of death in men and women.
The researchers found that, overall, self-reported health information was a stronger predictor of death and survival than biological parameters such as blood pressure and pulse. Surprisingly, walking pace (brisk, slow or steady) was more strongly associated with death risk than smoking or other lifestyle factors, in both men and women.
The Ubble site was created by a UK Charity called Sense About Science, which aims to provide people with the ability to interpret the many scientific and medical claims presented to the public. Ubble stands for “UK Longevity Explorer” and validation studies performed in a population of 35,810 individuals demonstrated that the test is 80% accurate.
The developers say they hope the score can be used to help high-risk individuals make lifestyle changes before it is too late: “We hope that our score might eventually enable doctors to quickly and easily identify their highest risk patients, although more research will be needed to determine whether it can be used in this way in a clinical setting,” says Dr Ganna.
Ganna adds that the score should not be treated as a deterministic prediction. “For most people, a high risk of dying in the next five years can be reduced by increased physical activity, smoking cessation, and a healthy diet.”
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