US counties with more medical debt see higher rates of several late-stage cancers

By Tarun Sai LomteReviewed by Benedette Cuffari, M.Sc.Oct 9 2026

From unpaid medical bills to delayed screening, researchers examined whether financial hardship at the community level tracks with when cancer is detected.

Study: Medical Debt and Advanced Cancer Stage at Diagnosis. Image Credit: create jobs 51 / Shutterstock.com

In a recent study published in JAMA Network Open, researchers assessed associations between medical debt and cancer incidence in the United States. 

How medical debt can create barriers to earlier cancer detection

Medical debt remains a persistent challenge in the U.S. and is emerging as a major social determinant of health. Nearly one in six people in the country has medical debt.

Medical debt may reflect broader community-level, policy-related structural factors, such as regional socioeconomic conditions, state Medicaid policies, local insurance market conditions, and hospital billing and collection practices. In fact, medical debt may serve as an area-level indicator of financial hardship and barriers to care. 

Prior research indicates that people with medical debt are more likely to forgo or delay healthcare because of financial concerns. These delays may be especially consequential for people with or at risk of cancer, as they might miss opportunities for screening and early detection.

Cancer stage at diagnosis is strongly linked to outcomes, with survival substantially lower among patients diagnosed at advanced stages. While previous studies have examined associations between medical debt, financial hardship, and cancer survival, less is known about whether community-level medical debt is associated with advanced-stage cancer diagnosis. 

Tracking medical debt alongside cancer diagnoses across the U.S.

In this cross-sectional ecological study, researchers examined associations between medical debt and incidence rates of nine common cancers in the U.S. They extracted county-level data on medical debt in collections in 2016 from the Debt in America dataset. Medical debt in collections referred to debt assigned to a creditor's collections department or a third-party collector that was normally 180 days or more past due and remained unpaid despite collection efforts. 

The team obtained five-year cancer incidence rates for 2017–21 from the State Cancer Profiles. Socioeconomic and demographic data for 2016, including urban-rural status, poverty, and racial and ethnic composition, came from Area Health Resources Files. All counties with available data on cancer incidence, medical debt, and relevant covariates were included. The primary exposure was the percentage of people with a credit bureau record who had medical debt in collections in 2016.

Outcomes included late- and all-stage incidence rates for breast, lung, cervical, prostate, melanoma, head and neck, bladder, colorectal, and kidney and renal pelvis cancers. Late-stage cancer was defined as regional or distant disease. Researchers used statistical models to examine associations between medical debt and cancer incidence while accounting for social vulnerability, urban-rural status, primary care physician density, state-level differences, and county population size. 

Higher medical debt is associated with more late-stage cancer

The study included 2,958 U.S. counties, 61% of which were rural. On average, there were 0.54 primary care physicians per 1,000 residents, and medical debt prevalence was 21.1%, with rural counties carrying a higher burden than urban counties. The mean proportion of residents without health insurance was 12.2%, while 24.9% lived below the federal poverty level. Medical debt prevalence was also higher in counties with greater social vulnerability and higher proportions of unemployed or uninsured residents. 

Counties with greater proportions of non-Hispanic White residents had lower medical debt prevalence. Medical debt and cancer incidence were generally higher in the South and Southwest and lower in the West. A higher proportion of residents with medical debt was associated with increased incidence of several cancers.

For every 10-percentage-point increase in medical debt prevalence, late-stage lung cancer incidence increased by 5.15 cases per 100,000 person-years. Corresponding increases were 0.69 for colorectal cancer, 0.59 for melanoma, 0.39 for cervical cancer, 0.38 for kidney and renal pelvis cancer, 0.24 for bladder cancer, and 0.92 for head and neck cancer. All-stage cancer incidence showed similar patterns. 

Higher medical debt was associated with lower late-stage prostate cancer incidence, while the inverse association for all-stage prostate cancer was not statistically significant. The authors noted that lower prostate cancer incidence in counties with more medical debt could reflect lower screening and diagnostic intensity rather than a lower underlying disease burden.

Late-stage breast cancer showed no significant association with medical debt in the primary analysis, though the result changed in some sensitivity analyses. The authors suggested that established breast cancer screening programs and safety-net services may partly reduce financial barriers to screening. Associations were generally consistent by sex, with larger changes among males, and sensitivity analyses produced similar estimates. 

What medical debt may reveal about barriers to cancer care

Higher county-level medical debt prevalence was associated with higher incidence rates of late-stage cancer across several common cancer types. The county-level design cannot show that medical debt caused later-stage cancer or that residents with debt were the same people diagnosed with cancer. Unmeasured socioeconomic, behavioral, and healthcare-system differences may also partly explain the associations. 

The findings suggest that medical debt may serve as an area-level indicator of financial and structural barriers linked to cancer detection and outcomes. The authors suggest that stronger financial protections and lower medical debt could reduce barriers to cancer prevention and care. However, the study did not test whether such measures improve cancer outcomes.