Opinion

... in response to Can SARS-CoV-2 die out without immunity?
  1. extinction time and heterogeneity in effective reproduction number
    Jan Galkowski Jan Galkowski United States says:
    August 16, 2020 at 5:56 PM

    I wonder how the extinction time estimates change if a heterogeneous diffusion is considered rather than the Poisson one, that is, one governed by a Negative Binomial model. See:

    Volz EM, Miller JC, Galvani A, Ancel Meyers L (2011) Effects of Heterogeneous and Clustered Contact Patterns on Infectious Disease Dynamics. PLoS Comput Biol 7(6): e1002042. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002042

    Britton et al., Science 369, 846–849 (2020) 14 August 2020

    Kim, Paini, Jurdak, "Modeling stochastic processes in disease spread across a heterogeneous social system", <em>PNAS</em>, January 8, 2019 | vol. 116 | no. 2 | 401–406

    H&eacute;bert-Dufresne, <em>et al</em>, "Beyond $latex R_{0}$: Heterogeneity in secondary infections and probabilistic epidemic forecasting", med$latex
    \mathrm{R}\chi$iv, 2020, www.medrxiv.org/.../2020.02.10.20021725v2

    Tkachenko, <em>et al</em>, "Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19", med$latex
    \mathrm{R}\chi$iv, 2020, www.medrxiv.org/.../2020.07.26.20162420v2

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