Future food oil choices could determine the fate of global forests

By Hugo Francisco de SouzaReviewed by Susha Cheriyedath, M.Sc.Feb 23 2025

A new study warns that swapping palm oil for other vegetable oils could backfire—leading to more deforestation, higher carbon emissions, and a growing threat to food security. Can sustainable certification schemes offer a better path forward?

Study: Pressure on Global Forests: Implications of Rising Vegetable Oils Consumption Under the EAT-Lancet Diet. Image Credit: Photoongraphy / Shutterstock

In a recent study published in the journal Global Change Biology, researchers estimate the impacts of global food oil demand on forest and carbon-rich ecosystems. They develop an ad-hoc spatially explicit land allocation algorithm to measure the deforestation (land-use) costs of providing 9.2 billion humans with sufficient oil for their dietary needs. Since the EAT-Lancet Commission suggests maintaining current palm oil intake while increasing consumption of other unsaturated oils, the study evaluates a scenario where palm oil is partially or fully substituted. The algorithm is tuned to evaluate the 2050 scenario under current and EAT-Lancet dietary trends.

The study findings are alarming. Under current trends, 115-120 million hectares of deforestation would be required to meet 2050’s oil demands, increasing to 148 million hectares under the EAT-Lancet dietary proposal. CO2 emissions from land-use change are projected at 621-666 Mt under current trends, rising to 1163-1210 Mt under the EAT-Lancet dietary scenario and up to 1525 Mt if palm oil is entirely replaced by other oils. These findings highlight the urgent need for reduced food wastage and certification schemes to ensure deforestation-free and sustainable food supply chains.

Background

The human population is expanding at unprecedented rates, escalating from 1 billion in 1800 to more than 8 times that amount just a little over 200 years later. Consequently, the global burden of food production represents the most influential driver of land use change, resulting in extensive forest clearance, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions to feed today’s growing number of mouths. Despite 37% of the earth’s land surface being used for agriculture, undernutrition remains commonplace, particularly in underdeveloped nations.

To address the global food crisis, the EAT-Lancet Commission has proposed a novel global benchmark diet, prioritizing healthy and sustainable foods that meet adult energy intakes of 2500 kcal/day without substantially increasing the demand for additional deforestation or land use change. As part of this benchmark diet, the EAT-Lancet Commission recommends maintaining the current per capita palm oil intake of ~6.8 g/day while increasing consumption of unsaturated oils, such as soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed, by 67%.

Recent reports have revealed that today’s palm oil demand has already resulted in 10.2 million hectares of deforestation annually, ~20% of commodity-driven deforestation. This has sparked public outcry against palm oil use and triggered a search for alternatives. Unfortunately, global populations are expected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2050, necessitating increased oil production (palm or otherwise). The impact of deforestation and carbon emissions on this growth remains unknown.

“…palm oil has come under intense scrutiny within the realm of agricultural commodities due to the well-established connection between the expansion of oil palm cultivations and the alarming trend of depletion of tropical forests observed in recent decades.”

About the Study

The present study aims to address this knowledge gap and inform future policymakers by estimating the land use requirements, potential deforestation, and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accompanying 2050’s food oil demand. They focus on palm oil and three unsaturated oils (soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed), which the EAT-Lancet diet recommends as healthy and sustainable alternatives to palm oil. They develop a novel ad hoc land allocation algorithm to estimate land use under four palm oil substitution scenarios – 0%, 25%, 50%, and 100%.

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) FAOSTAT database (2023) was used to compute present trends in food oil utilization, while the EAT-Lancet diet recommendation was used to calculate the EAT-Lancet scenario for all algorithmic evaluations. Human population growth (2050 – 9187 million people) was derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) model projection (2021).

“The quantities of palm and palm kernel oil slated for substitution under the different replacement scenarios were allocated to the three alternative oils based on their respective (current) shares of global production.”

The novel land allocation algorithm was designed using four main criteria – 1. Inclusion, 2. Exclusion, 3. Attribution, and 4. Priority. The inclusion criteria consider areas likely to be impacted by future oilseed production; the exclusion criteria demarcate areas unsuitable for oilseed production; the attribution criteria optimize oilseed crop per pixel meeting inclusion criteria, and priority enforces a hierarchy in oilseed yield per attributed pixel.

Finally, the Global Forest Resource Assessment of the FAO (FAO-FRA 2020) database was queried to compute the GHG emissions for both palm oil and converted/substituted oil crop scenarios.

Study Findings

Unsurprisingly, land allocation model estimations are bleak, with results projecting a 68% increase in food oil demand over today’s requirements. Surprisingly, however, these values increase to 74% under the EAT-Lancet dietary scenario, necessitating approximately 317 million hectares of food oil-specific agricultural land, an increase of 115-120 million hectares of deforested land over today’s amounts.

Substituting palm oil with the EAT-Lancet diet-recommended unsaturated oils (sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed) did not solve this problem, instead exacerbating it—substitution models estimate land use needs increasing to 385 million hectares, corresponding to 148 million hectares of deforestation. Together, these estimates amount to ~1525 Mt. of CO2 emissions from land use change alone, an unsustainable outcome. Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and Malaysia, will bear the greatest deforestation risks, though significant impacts are also expected in Central Africa and Central America. Prioritizing oil palm expansion near existing plantations could reduce deforestation-related emissions by 39-42%.

Potential future distribution of oil palm plantations for food use in 2050 under the ‘current consumption rate scenario.’ Suitable areas are designated based on the potential for higher attainable yields (a) and proximity to existing oil palm plantations (b). Grey lines indicate the current distribution, with three cover intensities (< 3, 3–6, > 6 kha). Colored pixels, with three cover intensities, indicate future suitable areas for oil palm plantations. Specifically, violet pixels indicate areas suitable to host plantations in the 50% palm oil replacement scenario; blue pixels indicate those areas suitable to complement the violet areas in the 25% palm oil replacement scenario; and green pixels indicate areas suitable to complement the violet and the green areas in the no palm oil replacement scenario.

Conclusions

The present study highlights the global deforestation and GHG emission impacts of human population growth and the unsustainable food-oil requirements of 2050. While the EAT-Lancet diet may propose reducing beef and similarly suboptimal foods, substituting palm oil with other oil crops does not seem to present a viable alternative to meeting the global food crisis.

“Instead, along with the growing importance of certification schemes for sustainable and deforestation-free food supply chains, ensuring sustainable production of all vegetable oils (including palm oil) emerges as a critical strategy to prevent the conversion of biodiverse and carbon-rich lands.”

Expanding alternative oil crops may also threaten global food security, as future land use shifts could displace key staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice, potentially increasing food scarcity in some regions.

Rather than outright replacing palm oil, ensuring sustainable production of all vegetable oils, including palm oil, is critical. Certification schemes and zero-deforestation commitments play a crucial role in protecting carbon-rich and biodiverse ecosystems.