COVID-19 lockdowns estimated to have prevented 3 million deaths across 11 European countries

By Angela Betsaida B. Laguipo, BSNJun 10 2020

The coronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have revealed how fragile everyday life is. Now, countries are slowly easing restrictions to return to normalcy.

Most European countries imposed lockdowns in March, banning all non-essential travel and contact with other people outside one’s home. They closed all schools, businesses, amenities, and places of worship, in the hopes of containing the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Now, a new study by researchers at Imperial College London estimates that lockdowns prevented around 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries. The modeling study, published in the journal Nature, highlights that social distancing measures worked in reducing the spread of the virus.

Image Credit: Iryna Imago / Shutterstock

The study findings

The team used data from the European Center for Disease Control on the deaths recorded in 11 countries in the period up to May 4. When lockdown measures were imposed in most of these countries, around 130,000 people had died as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 infection at this point.

The researchers used a disease modeling technique to predict how many deaths there would have been if lockdown had not occurred. The technique was based on fixed estimates of some epidemiological factors such as the infection fatality rate.

In the countries the team included, Austria, Britain, Belgium, France, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, and Sweden, the lockdown and social distancing measures had a significant effect, helping to reduce the infection’s reproductive rate or R-0 value, below one by early May.

Coronavirus impact, empty downtown street Turin, Italy - March 2020. Image Credit: MikeDotta / Shutterstock

The reproduction number is used to define how many people someone with the virus infects.

The team estimates that between 12 and 15 million people contracted the virus and were infected with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) up to May 4, representing between 3.2 and 4 percent of the total population.

The results of the study show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions, particularly lockdown measures, have had a significant effect on reducing the transmission and spread of the novel coronavirus, which has so far infected more than 7.23 million people and killed more than 411,000 people.

“Continued intervention should be considered to keep the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control,” the researchers concluded.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the transmission of the novel coronavirus, including social distancing and lockdown measures, have helped reduce transmission by an estimated 81 percent. The team, however, acknowledged that one limitation of the study is that it assumes each measure had the same effect on all countries. However, the implementation of lockdown measures varies from one country to another.

The team noted that in the middle of the pandemic, the data they used might be incomplete, with systematic biases in reporting. These findings are subject to consolidation in the future.

12/03/2020 Paina, Monza Brianza, Lombardy, Italy. - Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. People with facial masks and gloves queuing for quota entrance in the supermarket. Image Credit: Cristiano Barni / Shutterstock

Not over yet

The model also predicted that the outbreak would be nearly over now without lockdown measures, with many people infected with the virus. A herd immunity would have been achieved, but along with it, about more than seven in 10 people in the U.K. would have acquired COVID-19.

Without lockdown measures and with millions infected, the healthcare system would have collapsed without available beds for sick patients. It would have led to many deaths.

The claim that the pandemic is over is still uncertain. One of the researchers, Dr. Seth Flaxman, said that it is just the beginning of the pandemic. If restrictions and lockdowns are lifted, there is the risk the virus could start to spread again, leading to a second wave of the outbreak. He estimates that the second wave may come in the next month or two.

Worldwide, the coronavirus pandemic has left countries grappling with skyrocketing infections. The United States reports the highest number of confirmed cases, reaching nearly 2 million people. The death toll in the country has topped 112,000.

In Brazil, the infections have shot up over the past month, and the country has now taken second place in the highest number of cases. It has recorded more than 739,000 confirmed cases, and its death toll has reached 38,000.

In European countries, the United Kingdom leads with the highest infections. It has reported at least 290,000 confirmed cases and a staggering 40,968 deaths.