Type 2 diabetes epidemic worse than previously thought, reveals new research

Oct 12 2016

EXASOL, provider of the world’s fastest in-memory analytic database, today releases the most in-depth analysis ever carried out into type 2 diabetes medication prescribing in England.

EXASOL analysed 713 million rows of data released by the Government’s NHS Digital and sourced from the NHS Business Services Authority. The data captures every GP prescription dispensed at all pharmacies across England and runs for 6 years from August 2010 through to July 2016. The data was analysed by data scientists at EXASOL, using the world’s fastest in-memory analytic database.

The research findings include:

• Over the past five years, the number of prescriptions of type 2 diabetes medication have risen by one third (33%). In 2011, there were 26 million prescriptions, this rose to 35 million prescriptions in 2015.
• In the first six months of 2016 the number of prescriptions of type 2 diabetes medications was already up by more than 8% compared to the same period the year before.
• At the beginning of 2016, 3.5 million adults were believed diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in the UK – current trends of prescribing indicate we will have FIVE million people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in 2020, five years sooner than previously reported.

EXASOL found large variations in prescribing across England:

• The London district of Newham has the highest prescribing in the country, over double the national average. London boroughs have three of highest prescribing districts (Newham, Tower Hamlets, Harrow)
• Lincolnshire has two of the top three highest prescribing (East Lindsey, South Holland).
• There is a huge variation across the country. The first ever heat map, below, shows the disparity across the country. The red areas show high prescribing centred around the East-Midlands, with hot spots in areas of London.

Type 2 diabetes prescribing in England in 2011 and 2015, side-by-side for comparison:

10 highest prescribing districts for type 2 diabetes:

Diabetes prescribing in the past five years:

An escalating problem: Usage of second-line drugs doubles

Compounding the headline figure of a 33% increase in overall diabetes prescribing, it has been found that the use of Sitagliptin, a popular second-line drug, has doubled in the five years to 2015 from over 96 thousand prescriptions to over 192 thousand.

Looking at these individual drugs, the research found:

• Over half of all prescriptions are for Metformin. The drug helps type 2 diabetics respond better to their own insulin, lowering the amount of sugar created by the liver, and decreasing the amount of sugar absorbed by the intestines.
• Around a quarter of prescriptions are for Gliclazide. Gliclazide works by increasing the amount of insulin that your pancreas produces.
• Sitagliptin is a second-line drug, used when a combination of diet/exercise and Metformin fails. Most concerning is that prescriptions of these therapies have doubled in the five years to 2015.

Sean Jackson, chief marketing officer (CMO), EXASOL says:

When analysing the data, we can see the proof that diabetes prescribing has increased drastically over the past five years. However, this is only one part of the story: when we delve deeper, we find that data can uncover more information such as the geographic differences across the country and the large increase in prescribing of second line drugs.

With the right data and the right technology, you can turn any problem into a data problem and uncover information to help address it. Type-2 Diabetes is an enormous threat and by uncovering insights using big data shows the factual reality of the problem and steps can begin to be taken to reduce the threat. To analyse such enormous data-sets fast, returning answers from the data within seconds, requires the right tool and we hope the findings help to further reduce this serious issue.