Study: Possible impact of national responses to the COVID pandemic on medal tallies at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Image Credit: Hethers / Shutterstock.com
*Important notice: medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
The 2024 Paris Olympics marked the second Summer Games since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Western Pacific nations, such as Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, excelled in the Olympics, particularly in winning gold medals. This success may be partially attributed to their stringent pandemic measures and a 'COVID-cautious' approach.
These nations were previously recognized for their effective responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including strict measures like border closures, lockdowns, and mask mandates. These efforts have been associated not only with reduced excess mortality but also with a potential psychological and physical advantage in international competition. These efforts were found to effectively reduce excess deaths due to COVID-19 as compared to those reported in other regions.
In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers in Australia and New Zealand investigated the relationship between excess mortality, COVID-19 responses, and performance during the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, France.
About the study
The researchers of the current study analyzed the performance of 18 nations in the 2024 Paris Olympics, including New Zealand, Australia, France, the Netherlands, Italy, South Korea, Japan, China, Germany, Hungary, the United States, Great Britain, Jamaica, Kenya, Cuba, Brazil, Spain, and Canada.
The analysis considered Historical Olympic success, home country advantage, the effects of time zones, excess mortality from COVID-19, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Another variable considered was the number of signatories to the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which reflects a national stance against strict pandemic measures. Any nation that signed the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which advocated against widespread lockdowns and supported the development of alternative approaches to pandemic management, was also recorded.
Medal counts for the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 Olympics were obtained from official sources. Nations were selected based on their consistent top performance in the previous three Olympics, excluding Russia and Ukraine, due to reduced team sizes in 2024.
Each country was assigned certain points based on its performance, with adjustments made for factors like home advantage and time zone effects. Based on available data, the impact of national excess mortality during the pandemic was also determined. GDP growth data was collected for 2020-2023, and the number of GBD signatories was estimated.
The analysis was conducted using backward stepwise linear regression, which allowed researchers to identify key factors influencing medal counts. Ethical approval was not necessary since only publicly available data was used for the current study.
Study findings
The best predictor of medal success at the 2024 Paris Olympics was past performance during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 Olympics, as nations that performed well in these games continued to excel in 2024. Lower excess mortality from COVID-19 was also associated with more gold medals, thus indicating that countries with fewer pandemic-related deaths were more likely to win more gold medals. However, this association was most pronounced for gold medals specifically, rather than total medals or minor medals.
Four countries with 10% or more excess mortality between 2020 and 2023 obtained fewer gold medals than predicted based on their performance in three previous games. Comparatively, five countries with less than 6% excess deaths during the same period won gold medals than would have been predicted based on their past performance.
The home-country advantage was also significant, especially for total medal counts, but less so for gold medals. A negative association was also observed between the number of signatories to the GBD, which opposed strict COVID-19 measures, and the number of gold medals won, thus suggesting that countries with more signatories were less likely to win gold medals. This highlights a potential psychological impact on athletes, where a 'COVID-stoical' mindset may have negatively influenced performance.
Other factors, such as GDP growth during the pandemic and time zone effects, were not significantly associated with medal success in Paris.
Conclusions
The current study establishes an association between pandemic responses and Olympic success in Paris 2024. While causation cannot be definitively proven, the data suggests that countries with lower excess deaths, such as Western Pacific nations, outperformed expectations, which may be linked to both the physical and psychological benefits of stricter public health measures. Countries with fewer excess deaths, such as Western Pacific nations, outperformed expectations, which may be attributed to their ‘COVID cautious’ approach. Thus, stricter public health measures may have had a positive impact on athletes, both physically and psychologically.
The current study's notable strengths include identifying excess mortality as a significant predictor of gold medal success. However, the study is associated with certain limitations, such as the potential for unassessed confounding factors, including Russia's absence from the Olympics and the distribution of new Olympic events.
Additionally, while lower excess mortality correlated with more gold medals, it is unclear if this relationship is due to reduced infection, psychological resilience, or other unmeasured factors. Future research is needed to further explore the psychological effects of pandemic responses on athletes and to identify any other potential confounding factors.
*Important notice: medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
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